NFL Playoff Predictions and Week 17 Picks

Here's my playoff picture via http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/machine and picks for the week 17 winners.  I went all home teams accept the Buccaneers, I figured that the Falcons don't have anything to lose or gain with this game so they might slack off and put in some bench players.  The other games that didn't matter I just picked the home teams.  Some of the other games, the home teams need wins to have playoff hopes.  I'm sort of thinking that Detroit should just lose to get a better draft pick, but I don't think they will just let a divisional opponent beat them down at home.  They could still lose, but I don't see them just giving the win away.  I think Seattle is in, win or lose, but since they are playing at the same time as the 49ers, they will be playing for the win, just in case the 49ers slip up and lose the game to lose the division.  Also I'm going with the Skins over the Cowboys because they are at home and because they are coming in to this game red hot, so I think they will continue that trend against a mistake happy Dallas team.  The Skins just need to stop the run and let Romo help them win.  Three rookie QBs with 10+ wins gotta make other teams reevaluate what they have.  Head are going to roll in the off season.

Week 17 Picks & Final Playoff Placement

Ok here's my final picks for the regular season.

Lions over Packers - I think the Packers will end up resting some of their key players to avoid injuries, and the Lions want to go into the playoffs still hot.

49ers over Rams - Unless the Niners decide to rest players because they don't value the bye week, then I believe that they should win this game w/o any issues.

Dolphins over Jets - The Dolphins have been hot lately, I'm rolling with them. Not sure about Sanchez when the pressure is on, especially if the run game and defense aren't backing him up.

Vikings over Bears - Bears seems depleted, Vikings seems to have some steam behind them.

Patriots over Bills - Can't see them losing to the Bills twice in one season even if their starters don't play the whole game.

Panthers over Saints - this is a selfish pick, I just want to make sure the Niners get the #2 seed. Plus I like Super Cam as much as I like Brees.  I want him to finish his year off strong and this is an important divisional win to have under his belt.

Eagles over Redskins - I'm just really picking the home team, its nasty up in Philly, plus the Eagles have slowly been coming into their own lately.  So finishing the season with a couple wins to end at .500 would make sure Andy keeps his job. I say they are playing for him.

Jaguars over the Colts - The Jags are still playing to find their identity, the Colts should be playing for Andrew Luck, even if they end up trading the pick or something, that #1 pick holds a lot of weight.

Titans over Texans - The Texans playoff position is set, I'm sure they should be resting their stars for the playoffs.

Bengals over Ravens - The Ravens have been up in down, usually losing the game they should win, but winning the big games.  Not sure what category this one falls in for them, but its a big game for the Bengals and I think they will show up today.

Browns over Steelers - I'm picking this game because I picked against the Ravens above, but I still want them to win the division.  Plus I think the Steelers should be resting Ben and some other players instead of worrying about the bye.

Falcons over Buccs - The Buccs suck and the Falcons playoff positions isn't solidified so a win helps them somewhat.

Broncos over Chiefs - Tebow time, I guess... Orton is a better QB but the Broncs defense has been tough, I would actually like to see the Chiefs win, but I'm going to say based on the press behind this and the magnitude of this game that Buffalo Wild Wings will have the final decision in this game to help the Broncos get the win.

Raiders over the Chargers - the Raiders are still actually playing for a playoff spot so I think they will bring their best today at home to get that final playoff push.

Cardinals over Seahawks - who knows... I just picked the home team.  The Niners may have cooled the Seahawks down a lil last week so maybe they won't bring it like they have the past few weeks.

Giants over Cowboys - I'm picking the home team, the team that plays better later in the season, the team with the better clutch QB.  I think this game will be a shoot out, least turnovers and last to score wins, I'm going with the G-Men.  Although with my team in the playoffs I think I'd rather see the Cowboys win this one but I'm stick with the Giants as my pick.

My NFL Week 8 Picks

This week I'm going to do it a little different, it seems like the majority of the games are highly favored to one team this week so I'm only going to touch on a couple of the games.  My Spotlight game is one that looks like  a AFC Playoff game in the makings, The New England Patriots travel to Pittsburgh to battle the Steelers.  Earlier this week ESPN (AFC East Blog) spotlighted this game as well but spoken like a fan they named the article "Why Tom Brady Owns the Steelers" where they laid down valid points and stats about past games and why the Steeler have a 1-7 losing record against Tom Brady. Also they mentioned points about no matter how great the Steelers defense is playing that Brady single handedly pulls them apart. 

I'm a believer in Brady, I believe he is the best QB in the league right now (with Aaron Rodgers pulling at his coat tail).  I also believe that at their primes he's better than Peyton Manning, but I'm not going to argue that point because it would go on for days with no resolution.  But with all that said I'm completely going against Vegas and ESPN and picking the getting hot Steelers to win this one at home.  Why? Man I just got a feeling.  The Patriots are good this year, but they are flawed, they have shown vulnerability.  The Steelers are my 2nd least favorite team in the NFL, but I think they will make the needed adjustments so that Brady doesn't make them look like the Miami Dolphins.

I'm also Picking The Eagles at home to win over the Cowboys.  I have a feeling that this will be a mistake heavy game and the game will be won on the ground and not through the air like most people probably believe.  The Eagles have a stronger ground game and their defense might actually be coming together after all of these weeks.

San Diego Chargers over Kansas City Chiefs at home.  I believe the Chargers have the better offense but for some reason it doesn't seem like they have been able to put it all together this year, but I think they will step it up to hold their grown in the division.

I'll also take Cincy over Seattle in Seattle.  Now most people probably don't care about this game.  Cincy on the low has proven to have a solid defense this season, not sure if that will take them anywhere with a Rookie QB, Rookie WR, and RB running from the law in a division with the Ravens and the Steelers, but it will win them some games.  Seattle is considered one of the toughest places to play, the noise level in Detriot caused multiple offsides and bad snaps for the past few weeks, Seattle is that time 10 for every game.  I'm sure it has to be the accoustics in the stadium, I can't believe a Seattle team would have more rowdy fans than any team that has actually been winning the past few decades.

Thats All Folks, if any of the other upsets win, just know that I didn't pick the underdog this week (minus the Steelers).

Have a Happy and safe Halloween

My NFL Week 2 Picks...the Breakdown

Maybe I'm reaching with one of them, but hey I'm a fan.  Plus I've heard several other sports analyst make similar predictions about that Renewed Rivalry game between the 49ers and the Cowboys.

GAME OF THE WEEK

Philly over Atlanta - Honestly, Vick could lose this game for the Eagles if he gets caught up in the emotions of being back there as a starter or trying to get revenge, but this new Michael Vick doesn't seem to be that type of guy.  I think he will be poised and play a great game.  This game will be determined by the defenses. If Philly studied what kept the Falcons wings clipped last week they can win this game without a problem.

Buffalo over Oakland - I'd rather see the Raiders win this one, but the Bills look pretty explosive last week, and West Coast teams tend to have a bad record playing the 10am PST game on the East Coast.

Detroit over KC - KC stunk last week, I need them to do better (fantasy football reasons). But Detroit aren't who we thought they were. Detroit's defense might be nice this year.

Tampa Bay over Minnesota - I don't think the Vikings are put together well right now. Tampa Bay has potential.

Chicago over New Orleans - The Bears looked great last week, as did the Saints.  I just went with an underdog here, hopefully it works out for me.

New York Jets over Jacksonville - Does anyone think differently?

Pitt over Seattle - Do I need to explain this. Forget the Pitt ya'll saw last week, yeah their defense is old, then need a lil more Bengay than most units, but I'm sure that they well get their legs back for this game.

Washington over Arizona - I'm picking this based off of the Skins looking good against the Giants and the Cards defense allowing Cam Newton to get silly on them last week. Hightower might have a career game and a lot of receptions.

Green Bay over Carolina - The person who picks against the Packers in this game and win is paid for life. But this aint Vegas and I'm not gambling so I'm picking the logical pick for this one.

San Fran over Dallas - The QB with the least mistakes (leading to turnovers) will lead his team to victory in this game.  If the game is flawless, and the Special Teams of the 49ers doesn't "do it A-Ginn", then the Cowboys have the best chance to win. But I don't see this being a flawless game and I think Romo will make the most mistakes. 49ers win, 28-27.

Cincy over Denver - Eh... who cares.  I closed my eyes and picked this one.

Houston over Miami - This is a toss up to me, but I think Houston has a better offense and a stronger running game to control the clock. 

San Diego over New England - I wasn't impressed by the Patriots defense allowing a mediocre team to almost score at will, so I believe that a team with a strong running game and passing game should be able to make the game a lot closer than the game was in Miami. On top of that a team with a much better defense should hold Tom Brady to a 200-300 yard game. Chargers win by 4.

St. Louis over New York Giants - Eh... both teams seem to be injured right now, I wouldn't bet my money on either of these teams in this game. I went with the underdog for this one.

My Week 15 NFL Picks - Playoff Hopes...

My Week 15 NFL Picks

Although I knew it would be a tough game to win against the #1 rated defense in the league, as a fan I can't pick against my team.  I picked the 49ers to win against the Chargers.  It would've been an amazing win, and would've put out playoff hopes in our own hands, now we need to win our last two games at St. Louis and at home against the Cardinals as well as for the Rams & Seahawks to lose the rest of their games in order to make the playoffs.  Thats a tall order, but not impossible. Both the Rams & Seahawks have tough remaining schedules.  I think our toughest will be the divisional matchup against the Rams in St. Louis next week.

The game on Thursday could've turned out a lot less of a blow out if it wasn't for one series of plays.  We made a field goal, but a Chargers player got called for leaping, so we get the ball back with a 1st and goal. Alex Smith makes a run for it and dives... TOUCHDOWN!!! Wait Norv Turner challenges it, the ruling is overturned. Now its 4th down and inches.  We run the ball, get stopped, turn over on downs. On defense a shoving match breaks out, the ref tries to break it up and Justin Smith accidentally pushes him, then he gets ejected out of the game. So with in a matter of 5 minutes, we get 3 points, lose 3 points, get a TD, lose the TD, get on defense, lose our #1 defensive linemen.

After that point Phillip Rivers, who is a top 3 QB this year and definitely the best out of his rookie class of Big Ben and Eli Manning, seemed to have an abundance of time in the pocket.  You don't give a great QB that much time.  Prior to losing Justin Smith we were able to get to Rivers, and stopped them on a couple possessions.  Afterwards there was no stopping them.

Here's the accidental push that got Justin thrown out of the game and below it is that same ref tackling a running back in a play that he could've gotten a good amount of yards.  I wonder if the ref threw himself out of the game after that...





Read more about this situation here http://www.ninersnation.com/2010/12/16/1881380/justin-smith-ejection-video-referee-garth-defelice-overreacting-again

But here we go with the quick run down on my week 15 picks.

Cleveland over Cincy - The Bengals are playing for a QB next year via the draft obviously and the Browns have looked decent enough to win this game.

Dallas over Washington - I hate to make that pick but the Cowboys offense has come alive and the Skins offense has been in turmoil as of lately.  Not to mention the benching of McNabb, that really doesn't seem to help this situation, in my opinion.  I'm picking Dallas, but I would LOVE to be wrong on this pick.

Houston over Tennessee - the Titans seem lost.  The Texans have an explosive offense, so even with their suspect passing defense they should be able to beat the Titans and beat them early.

Jacksonville over Indy - eh... I want the Colts to miss the playoffs thanks to the Jags winning the division.  My future Parents-In-Law live in Jacksonville, so I'm going for the Jacksonville in this game.

Kansas City over St. Louis - KC got Matty back to run their offense after a week off.  The Chiefs have been a pretty good time this year, plus they need to win to win the division thanks to the Chargers win on Thursday. Chiefs all the way.  I think it will be close most of the game though, the Rams have proven to be good at home this year.

Buffalo over Miami - I picked the Bills FTW last week and I'm doing again this week.  Miami is also a confused team, I think the Bills can win this game based on the tougher games that they have played with better teams.

Philly over the NYG - Tough one to pick but I like Mike Vick and the Eagles better in this match up.  Thats all...

Tampa Bay over Detroit - Tampa is just a better team to me, and I think they still have playoff chances.

Arizona over Carolina - The Panthers stink.

New Orleans over Baltimore - Baltimore's defense has been horrible against the pass and against elite QBs as well as a few slightly above average QBs like Ryan Fitzpatrick.  Drew Brees is hot right now, I expect for him to give the Ravens secondary a run for their money.

Atlanta over Seattle - Atlanta wants to clinch that playoff victory as well as home field advantage w/the bye week.  They will do that this week in Seattle.  Bird GAME!  The Seahawks don't stand a chance in my opinion.

Oakland over Denver - The Raiders are just a better team than the Broncos, I don't think they will demolish them like last time, but they will win by at least 2 scores.

Pittsburgh over NYJ - This game is in Pitt and Pitt wants to clinch the victory and win their division, they need to do it here.  The Jets have been on a slump and I don't think they can get out of that slump this week against the Steelers.

New England over Green Bay - even if Rodgers was healthy my pick would be the same, but I would just call it as a close game.  The Patriots are the best team in football right now and they will put up 30+ points again this week.  The Packers might get 14.

In this weeks MNF outdoor game in below freezing temperatures I'm going with Chicago over Minnesota.  The Vikings are using their 3rd string QB and the Bears can win the division with a win here.  I think it will mainly be a running game but it might be sloppy, neither team is used to the cold weather.

My Week 12 NFL Picks

Turkey Time!

I'm a little late with this post but I hope everyone enjoyed their Thanksgiving and enjoyed their Thanksgiving day football.  Thanks to TNF the past couple of years we've gotten more than the traditional two games featuring the Cowboys and the Lions facing various opponents.  The 8:30 TNF game always feels like a bonus.  The bonus for me this week is that my 3 picks for Thursday turned out to be correct.

New England over Detroit: Seemed like a no brainer, but at the end of the first half I was a little in shock, but at that point the family and I headed to our first of three dinners, by the time we got to my aunts house the Patriots had turned the game around full circle. Cha Ching!

New Orleans over Dallas: The Cowboys have seemed renewed since dropping their coach, but the Saints are looking to get back into the Superbowl contender conversation with their starting distraction Reggie Bush back, so the Saints seemed like an easy win for me.  But this one came down to the wire.  When the family and I were at our 2nd dinner it seemed like the Saints had complete shut down the Cowboys.  But once again during our travel time to the 3rd dinner something happened.  The game was now close, and this game went to the wire! I would like to thank Roy Williams for helping me to get this pick correct.  Maybe she should be carrying the whole teams shoulder pads in practice this week.

New York Jets over Cincy: The Bengals are the largest disappointment of the season to me.  The 49ers, Cowboys, and Vikings are also disappointments but neither of those teams have reality shows and "Superhero's" on their team.  At the end of the night, this was an easy pick.

Green Bay over Atlanta: Honestly, I'm picking the Packers because my money league fantasy team is headed by Aaron Rodgers.  But this game could go either way.  I assume it will be a shoot out.  Green Bay has the better QB, but ATL has the better running game and better WR.  So what will decide this game is the defense, whoever turns the ball over the most will lose.

Pittsburgh over Buffalo: Yeah I've picked the Bills in past weeks, but not against the Steelers.  The Steelers are top 3 in the AFC, this will be an easy win for them as long as they don't underestimate the Bills.

Cleveland over Carolina: The Panthers suck.  The Browns have actually shown that they can beat teams, plus they are at home.

Jacksonville over New York Giants: This sounds like a stretch but the Jags are at the top of their division that includes the Titans, Colts, and Texans.  They are on a natural high right now, and they will look to keep that going against a Giants team on the decline of their season and dealing with several injuries.  Peyton can get it done with any WR staff, I'm not sure that Eli can do the same...

Minnesota over Washington: I want to take the Skins at home against a disappointing Vikings team, but I'm going to take the Vikes only because the fired their coach.  Not that Chilly was a bad coach and neither was Wade, but I guess making that change lights some fire under whatever team.  The Cowboys looked like we thought they would and with a backup QB, I'm looking for the Vikings to come to life as well. This is actually an underdog pick too.

Houston over Tennessee: I just think the Texans offense will take over this game.  The Titans looked confused last week, now they have a 3rd string QB running the show.  I think the Texans will prove to be the better team in this game.

Oakland over Miami: They both have tough loses last week, but I think the Raiders were expected to lose, Miami didn't seem to be able to do anything last week.  This game could go either way, but I'm going with the Raiders, they are just the faster team and I think it will help them in a redemption victory this week.  Plus they are at home.

Kansas City over Seattle: The Chiefs are actually a good team both teams are at the top of their division, but as time has shown over the past few years the NFC West is probably the worst division in the NFL.  The 2nd worst this year would have to be AFC West, based on team records.  I look for KC to destroy the Seahawks in this NFL West Superbowl.

Philly over Chicago: The Bears defense seems to be getting close to being back in form, but I'm going to go with the Eagles.  Its hard for me to pick against them going forward this season.  This should be a good game and I do think it will be close but the Eagles offense is just so much more explosive than the Bears offense.

Denver over St. Louis: The Rams have been good at home, but bad on the road.  The Broncos have a high powered offense, The Rams have an above average offense.  The Broncos should have this game put away by half time.

Baltimore over Tampa Bay: Tampa Bay is looking good in the NFC, but the AFC is a different ball game.  The Ravens are a top 3 AFC and top 3 NFL team right now.  The game might be close at the beginning but once the Ravens get warmed up, I look for them to take complete control of the game.

San Diego over Indy: The Chargers are getting key weapons back, even though they are missing Gates again, they have some other great WRs back in place.  The Colts are dealing with too many injuries.  I think it will be a close game, but the Chargers will continue their 2nd half of the season run to make the playoffs.  I called 31 to 27 in the Chargers favor.  The Colts will need a TD to win, and won't get it to end the game.

San Francisco over Arizona: Both teams have the same record, but the Cardinals have lost twice in the division and the 49ers have only lost once.  Another issue for the Cardinals is that they have allowed more points against them than the 49ers.  The Cardinals will continue their losing streak to 6 games in a row after this Monday.  I look for the 49ers to bounce back with their first road win of the season which will move them to 2nd place in the division.  I'm calling a score of 21 to 6 in the 49ers favor.