Mike Sando's NFL MVP Watch as of Week 2

Before the season started I posted John Clayton's QB Rankings which I could say are very easy to agree with based on what we knew about the individuals.  In a similar list but definitely in a different order Mike Sando from ESPN has listed his MVP Watch based on the players that have been the most valuable to the success of their team after two weeks.  Its a bit early to crown anyone but its interesting to see some new names at the top of the list.  Below is his top 10, mainly QB's but one LB made the list.  It's good to finally see the 49ers #1 pick finally starting to pan out.  First time with the same Offensive Coordinator for more than one season, first time with multiple legit receiving weapons, and a Coach that is fully backing him.  Its amazing what a good supporting cast will do for a player with potential.

1. MATT RYAN 

Quarterback | Atlanta Falcons ... Next Game: 9/23 at SD ... Last Poll: 3

Ryan has set a quick early pace while leading the Falcons to a 2-0 record. He leads the NFL in Total QBR by a wide margin thanks to five passing touchdowns, one rushing touchdown, two sacks and zero turnovers. He has never finished a season with 30-plus scoring passes or a completion percentage higher than 62.5. His quick start and the Falcons' overall strength put Ryan in position to enjoy a career year both in production and team success.

2. ALEX SMITH 

Quarterback | San Francisco 49ers ... Next Game: 9/23 at MIN ... Last Poll: 7

Smith ranks second only to Ryan in success rate, defined by ESPN's analytics department as those producing gains in expected points. Like Ryan, Smith has zero turnovers through two games. Despite taking seven sacks, Smith ranks second only to Ryan in QBR among quarterbacks with enough attempts to qualify. He's at 81.9 out of 100 after finishing last season ranked 22nd at 45.8 (50 is average, suggesting the 49ers won largely for factors beyond QB production).

3. AARON RODGERS 

Quarterback | Green Bay Packers ... Next Game: 9/24 at SEA ... Last Poll: 2

All MVP Watch candidates are not created the same. Those with lesser career credentials must be producing at a high level to earn spots on the list. The few players with Rodgers' credentials get the benefit of the doubt in the absence of their usual production, especially early in the season. Rodgers has yet to get going, but he has also faced two rugged defenses. The trend continues when the Packers visit Seattle in Week 3. Rodgers' production should pick up against New Orleans (Week 4) and Indianapolis (Week 5) before a tough matchup at Houston (Week 6).

4. PHILIP RIVERS 

 Quarterback | San Diego Chargers ... Next Game: 9/23 vs. ATL ... Last Poll: NR

Rivers makes his 2012 debut on the list. He ranks second to Christian Ponder in completion percentage (73.8) and has led the Chargers to their first 2-0 start since the 2006 team won its final 10 games to finish 14-2. A home game against Ryan's Falcons provides Rivers with a stage to prove he belongs on this list, and possibly higher than fourth. Trips to Kansas City and New Orleans await from there, part of a road schedule that appears manageable for Rivers and San Diego.

 

5. ELI MANNING  

Quarterback | New York Giants ... Next Game: 9/20 at CAR ... Last Poll: NR

A stunning 510-yard passing performance returns Manning to the list after a week away. Check out this note from ESPN Stats & Information: "Since the start of 2011, Manning is 18-of-28 (64.3 percent) with eight touchdowns and no interceptions in the fourth quarter on throws more than 20 yards downfield. In the first three quarters, Manning is 25-of-70 (35.7 percent) with four touchdowns and four interceptions on such throws." What we're saying, pretty much, is that Manning is clutch.

6. TOM BRADY  

Quarterback | New England Patriots ... Next Game: 9/23 at BAL ... Last Poll: 1

Brady had a tough time solving Arizona's defense and now he must adjust to life without injured tight end Aaron Hernandez. He ranks only 23rd in Total QBR to this point. A trip to Baltimore in Week 3 wouldn't seem to help. Brady has seven picks in his past three games against the Ravens, counting the playoffs. He took four sacks against the Cardinals. That was his total through Week 4 last season. New England has three of its next four on the road.

7. CAM NEWTON 

Quarterback | Carolina Panthers ... Next Game: 9/20 vs. NYG ... Last Poll: NR

This spot feels a little high for Newton based on his production to this point and the Panthers' 1-1 record. Let's check back in a week to see how well he fared in his first career matchup against the Giants. The game is at Carolina, which should help. Newton was a 60 percent passer last season. He's closer to 70 percent through two games.

8. CLAY MATTHEWS 

Linebacker | Green Bay Packers ... Next Game: 9/24 at SEA ... Last Poll: NR

Matthews becomes the first defensive player to appear on the MVP Watch list this season. No defensive player has won The Associated Press version of the award since Lawrence Taylor a quarter century ago. The trend isn't going to change, most likely, in this era of increased pass production. But with 3.5 sacks against the Bears and six through two games, he has stood out. From the Elias Sports Bureau: "Since sacks became an official stat in 1982, Matthews is just the sixth player to have at least six sacks in his team's first two games and the only player to do it twice."

9. ROBERT GRIFFIN III 

Quarterback | Washington Redskins ... Next Game: 9/23 vs. CIN ... Last Poll: 5

It's looking like Griffin will have to carry more of the Redskins' weight after the team suffered devastating injuries on defense during its 31-28 defeat at St. Louis. He appears capable of handling the added pressure. The Redskins have put up 68 points through two games, both on the road. They play three of their next four at home. From Elias: Griffin joins Newton and Jake Delhomme as the only quarterbacks since 1970 with three passing touchdowns and two rushing touchdowns over his first two career games.

10. BEN ROETHLISBERGER 

Quarterback | Pittsburgh Steelers ... Next Game: 9/23 at OAK ... Last Poll: NR

The running game hasn't gotten much going for Pittsburgh to this point. Only two teams are averaging fewer yards per carry than the Steelers are averaging. From ESPN Stats & Information: Roethlisberger's third-down production this season leaves him ranked first or second in passing yards, passing first downs, passing touchdowns, completion percentage and QBR. Roethlisberger has completed 19 of 25 third-down passes for 251 yards and three scores with no picks.  

My Week 2 NFL Picks

Week 1 I didn't do a post for my picks but I did tweet them.  I did pretty good, I'm on top of my pick 'em league, and was one Raiders win away from winning the pot in my weekly pick 'em.  My losing picks were the Giants, Saints, Bills, Seahawks, and Raiders. 

So lets not even get into much of a story lets go right into the picks for week 2.

Green Bay over Chicago - this pick worked out, but definitely didn't look anything like I thought it would.  I thought it was going to be more of a shout out until the end.

Cincy over Cleveland - I'm going with the better defense, better offense at home.  Seems like a no-brainer.

Philly over Baltimore - I don't think Philly is going to stink it up twice nor do I think Baltimore is going to go ham again like they did last week.  However this is definitely a possible Super Bowl match up.

New England over Arizona - I really can't see this going any other way.

Minnesota over Indy - This could go either way I'm just going to go with the team with better Running Game and better Defense.

KC over Buffalo - Even though KC lost last week, they looked like they could beat a team that looked as bad as the Bills last week.

NYG over Tampa Bay - This could be tough match up, so I'm going with the home team and the reigning champs.

New Orleans over Carolina - A close game, a lot of offense, but I believe that Drew Brees will remember how to finish a game by playing a familiar opponent.

Oakland over Miami - The Dolphins just don't seem like they have a complete team on either side of the ball, its hard not to pick against them.

Houston over Jacksonville - I don't think there is a reason that a healthy Houston team should lose any of their divisional match ups.

Dallas over Seattle - Dallas seemed like more of a complete team last week, but I think playing in Seattle will show some of their true colors and some mistakes will happen.  However I don't think it will be enough for them to lose this game without Russell Wilson having a RG3-like game.

Washington over St. Louis - The Skins looks like the better team in this match up as long as they stay clean and low on the mistakes they should be able leave St. Louis as winners by two scores.  The Rams actually have a better defense than the Saints, but a much worse offense.  So this favors the Redskins.

San Diego over Tennessee - I'll take the vet QB and the home team in this one.  CJ0K would have to get back into form and have a 200 yard game to win this one for the Titans.

Pittsburgh over NYJ - Better defense better offense wins.  I wouldn't bet my life savings on this game though, its a toss up.

The San Francisco 49ers over Detroit - The 49ers are at home, their defense should keep the Lions in check enough to allow the 49ers offense to win this game.

Denver over Atlanta - again, I wouldn't bet my life savings on this, the Falcons looked great last week.  I'm just going to go with Peyton Manning on this one.  Ryan has the advantage at home so again this is a toss up.

With All The Other Drama Going On...I Must Say, Welcome Back...

Welcome Back Alex Smith!!!

Ok Ok, I know he isn't a proven elite QB like Peyton, Drew, Aaron, or Tom, and that he's been a bust as a #1 overall draft pick for most of his career.  But you know what, I'll take him over most of the QBs in the league right now and defintely another overall #1 pick, JaMarcus Russell.  Sure he's not Aaron Rodgers who wanted to be a 49er QB growing up.  But who's to say Aaron would be who he is without the QB training programs they have in Green Bay plus his time learning under a legend.  Who would he have been in Alex's shoes?  Alex had one great year of college football (32 Passing TDs, 10 Rushing TDs, 4 INTs, a 68% Completion Percentage, 3604 total yards), then came to the league and for the his first 3 years he was in out of the starting position, threw more INTs than TDs. His 2nd year was the only year prior to 2011 that he started all 16 games and his TDs & INTs were dead even at 16, not to mention a year off in 2008 (his 4th year) due to injury.  Prior to 2011 he hadn't come close to 3,000 yards passing or 3,000 yards total.  A different offensive coordinator every year, a carosel of couches, but each one gave him a chance.  They could have easily discarded him like Tebow or and of the numorous Browns QBs when a new coach came in. They didn't draft him, he wasn't their guy.  But some how, some way this dude charmed each one of them into believing that he could be that guy.  Until last year he didn't prove that to be true, but last year his coach was a former QB and maybe they had a better understanding than had been there before.  Definetly better than his former coach, you know that Hall of Fame Linebacker from the Bears...

But hey...we're glad thats over and the Alex Smith and Jim Harbaugh have a great working relationship...

I'm not saying that I would take Alex over Peyton, but I do think Alex is a better fit under the current coach than Peyton would be.  Do we have a better chance at a Superbowl with Peyton, absolutely.  But Peyton didn't like the pressure of the "Super Bowl or bust" weight on his shoulders with a team that appeared to be a few precise passes and two fumbled punt returns away from being there last year.  We were obviously late to the Peyton party, I'm sure it was due to some indecisiveness on our part.  Maybe Jim and the Yorks going back and forth about it, but who knows.  Last time I saw a Owner go over the Coach and pick and older QB that experiment went pretty bad (McNabb/Skins), so with that said I'd rather all parties agree on the managers of the team, Owner, GM, Coach, O-Cord, D-Cord, QB, and MLB.  Thanks Peyton for considering the 49ers, but I do think you made the best decision by going to the Broncos.

Unfortunately for Alex this year he will be under a microscope even more so than last year.  He had a pretty decent year last year with a schedule that seemed hard at first but turned out to be a lot easier than it appeared.  This outside of the divisional match ups that will include Matt Flynn, Sam Bradford, and Kevin Kolb (I think he's still a Cardinal *shrugs*), we will be facing the Saints (Drew Brees), Giants (Eli Manning), NFC North (Rodgers, Stafford/Megatron, Cutler/Marshall) and the AFC East (Brady, Fitzpatrick).  With those match ups alone, minus a stellar Defensive performance, Alex will have to put up numbers to win.  To his advantage it looks like the organization has decided to put some WRs around him.  Braylon Edwards was a fail experiment, Crabtree hasn't really lived up to his draft status or his wannabe diva status, Josh Morgan showed some flashes of being a #1 guy then got injured and is now a Redskin, Ted Ginn Jr really wasn't supposed to be a starting WR, more so a returns guy, but he helped out some last year when he wasn't injured, who else is there Kyle Williams and Bret Swain, I'll leave those two alone.  The 49ers went out and resurrected Randy Moss who hopefully is hungry for TDs and signed Super Bowl hero David Tyree Mario Manningham to add to the weapons for Smith. Most likely they will draft a WR in the 1st round or early 2nd round as well.  Previous to this year here's a list of his "top" WRs (RBs & TEs not included); Michael Crabtree 2009-11, Josh Morgan 2009-11, (Old) Isaac Bruce 2009, Darrell Jackson 2007, Arnez Battle 2005-07, Antonio Bryant 2006, and Brandon Lloyd for his very few starts in 2005.  So yes we have had QB problems since Garcia, but I'd have to also so that we have had WR problems since T.O.  Maybe that will change, the best WRs either want to be on a team with good QBs or a team that is actually winning, prior to last year we had neither.  Smith just got a 3 year deal, which means if he doesn't show and prove this year then Colin Kaepernick or a Free Agent QB (hopefully not Tebow) will end up taking his place in 2013.  Good luck 49ers and good luck Alex Smith.  I don't expect a 13 win season, I'd be a fool to do so, I expected 6 to 8 wins last year based on the schedule and the schedule looks worse this year.  I think we can win the division with 9 wins and the fans will be happy and everyone keeps their jobs.  Just don't let the defense get Steelers old without us at least getting to the big show...

So for now...

Because... "That's My Quarterback"

And I'm OUT! Hopefully no more 49er posts until PreSeason.

My NFL Week 5 Picks - For the Birds...

I feel like I've used this picture before, but now its completely different. Mentor and Mentee from the Philly Byrd Gang will get a chance to square off and the only thing on the line is their future.  McNabb may think its Kolbs fault he got the boot from Philly, but wouldn't it be justice served if the guy that McNabb co-signed to come to Philly (Vick) is the reason that Kolb got the boot as well.  The bad thing is that none of the Byrd Gang QB's from 2 years ago are off to a good start.  Although Vick is putting up great fantasy numbers, real fans are getting their hearts broken at 1-3.  The Arizona Cardinals are sitting at 1-3 as well, they haven't played bad but they haven't finished games.  Then the Minnesota Vikings, who have become the choke artist team for the first quarter of the season, losing most of their games after having a nice lead at the half, are 0-4.  When teams are 0-4 usually you see coaches get fired or QBs get replaced.  With Christian Ponder already stating that he's excited to learn from a Pro Bowler but he wants that #1 spot, not later but right now, I think McNabb might have the most at stake right now.

Therefore in the battle of the former Eagles I'm picking Minnesota over Arizona

Here's my quick run down for the rest of the games:

Philly over Bills - I think the emotions and anger from last weeks game that was theirs for the taking that they ended up losing will fuel the Eagles to come together as a team and win this pivotal game on the road.

Carolina over  New Orleans - This is one of my underdog picks, I'd just like to see Cam win this divisional match up, plus its a home game, so I'll use that as my reason for giving them the advantage on this one.  On paper its seems like Carolina has the better pass defense thus far.  Not that they can stop Brees, but maybe they can make them rely on the run more than usual.  The bad thing is that I have both QBs on one of my Fantasy Teams, I haven't started Cam yet, but I'm considering it.

Houston over Oakland -  this might be the first time I picked against the Raiders, but the Texans have their running game back and even with out Andre Johnson I think they will have enough of a passing game to make the difference.  Plus their pass rush is pretty good, Campbell will be under pressure.

Indy over  KC - Honestly even though Indy lost on Monday, they looked like a better team than the Kerry Collins lead team.  I'm going with them for the win at home.

Cincy over Jacksonville - Just don't believe that the Jags can win games and Cincy has a nice defense.

NYG over Seattle - The Seahawks appeared to develop a passing game with Sidney Rice healthy, but the Giants have a much better passing game, as long as they don't leave this win up to chance and actually play like the team that they are, this should be an easy win.

Pittsburgh over Tennessee - this won't be an easy win, I'm giving Pitt the home field advantage on this one.  The Titans seem like a great improvement over last year, while the Steelers seem to still be on their Superbowl hangover.  Hopefully for them this home game can help them shake it off.

San Francisco 49ers over Tampa Bay - My reasons are this. I'm a 49ers fan. The Buccs had a short week. Last year Tampa came to town and held the 49ers scoreless at home for the first time since the 70s, which also lead to the firing of Singleterry.  Not that Harbaugh is anywhere near a hot seat of any sort, but this will be big redemption game for him at home for 1 the overtime loss against the Cowboys at home and for 2 to show that he's here to clean up the mess of the past 7 years.  Last reason is that Tampa is better when their run game is thriving, the 49ers have one of the toughest Run Defenses in the league, if McCoy had a bad game imagine how Blount will do.

San Diego over Denver - The Chargers are just a better all around team, I would be shocked if the Broncos win, even though they are at home.

New England over NYJ - I can't see Brady and the gang getting beat at home by the No Offense Jets.  Not to mention the Jets defense doesn't look as well put together as it did last year.

Green Bay over Atlanta - Sure the Falcons have home field advantage, but this isn't last years Falcons or the Matty Ice that we've seen in the past, furthermore Aaron Rodgers has become unreal this year, this is a career year.  On top of that they know that in order to win their division this year that have to be flawless.  The Packers have 5 more games that could be tough, including this one (ATL, SD, DET, NYG, DET) but at the rate they are going this looks like undefeated team that might do what the Patriots could do against the Giants in the Superbowl a few years ago. Yeah I Said It, someone alert the '72 Dolphins. LOL.

Detroit over Chicago - This hasn't really been an exciting match up in awhile but I think the Lions won't need to make any comebacks to win this game.  I think it will be close but I'll give Detroit the advantage for being at home and for having a better Passing Game.

Update: ESPN decided to highlight the Eagles QBs in an article as well, I guess great minds think a like. All three are having a tough year.  But the season is far from over for either of them, well at least not yet.

My Favorite Time of Year! NFL Week 1 Picks

And tonight, it begins... The NFL Season has returned, the offseason was short, the offseason deals were compounded into a week of pure excitement.  Super teams were created, great teams stayed the same but got healthy, mediocre teams are still trying to figure it out, and Peyton Manning will miss a start of a season and a game for the first time since the 90's.

The past few years have been all about the Quarterback and what better way to start the season than to have the past two Superbowl MVP QBs to face off in what we hope to be a high powered shoot out.

My Picks are below, if you want to go against me week to week join my NFL Pick 'Em Pool http://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/pickem 

ID: 25761 Password: winning

Packers over Saints - This game could go either way I'm picking the Packers based off of homefield advantage, no injuries, and because they have the least changes to their team from last year.

Falcons over Bears - This isn't a give me either, but I just trust in the offense of the Falcons more than the Bears and their questionable WR Core.

Browns over Bengals - This game doesn't even sound interesting, but the Browns have less change to their team from last year and that team was decent. The Bengals sucked last year with super stars, now they have no one, so I'll let you figure that one out.

Chiefs over Bills - The Chiefs proved last year that they can be a contender, the Bills never seemed like they could finish games.  Chiefs win by two scores.

Eagles over Rams - I pick the Eagles to win this because the have to win this game.  The Dream team can't lose any games to the NFC West, a division that was all .500 and under last year.  This might be a playoff match up for January...

Lions over Buccs - I went back and forth with this pick, but Stafford is back and healthy, the Lions have an offense that can put up numbers and their defense had Tom Brady shaking in his Uggs.

Titans over Jaguars - Both teams are suspect but the Jaguars dropping Garrard made this pick for me. The Titans have a better running game and a veteran QB that beat the former Superbowl Champs in the playoffs not long ago. Titans all day.

Steelers over Ravens - I'd rather the Ravens win but when Big Ben is in the game against Flacco on the other side, they haven't had much luck.

Texans over Colts - No Peyton and the Texans are a pretty good team, so I pick the the Texans.  If Peyton doesn't travel with the team then this might be an easier win than I'm predicting.  If the Colts are smart they will have Peyton at every game mic'd up talking to Kerry in his ear every play.

Panthers over the Cardinals - This is just one of the underdog picks I decided to take a chance with. I'm not sure if either team really knows who they are yet so defense and special teams might decide this one.  I'm not a believer in Kolb.

Chargers over Vikings - The Chargers just have a better team on paper than the Vikings.  They didn't lose many and didn't have to make many changes. They are healthier than last year so I expect them to be stellar this year if they remain that way.

The San Francisco 49ers over Seahawks - Tavaris Jackson is my reason for this pick.  Sike nah, I'm a Niners fan, I think we had a good team last year, we have a better coach this year and a couple more targets for Alex Smith.  I would feel better with someone else under center but with the short offseason Alex knows the team the best at this point.  Seattle still needs some time to get things together, I don't think they are completely sold on their QB situation as of yet.

Giants over Redskins - Its 9-11, its written in the book of (NFL) life for the New York Football Giants to win this game.  I think this game will come down to the 4th quarter and Sexy Rexy making an error large enough to put the nail in the coffin.  The Skins still have some bugs to work out but their schedule looks easy enough for them to do so in the first few weeks. This game will help to point out things that need to change.

Jets over Cowboys - This doesn't have as much of a 9-11 will be the reason for the NY team winning feel to it, but I just don't think the Cowboys will play comfortably until half of the season is gone.  Romo was gone for practically a whole season, he will have some kinks to work out on top of the kinks he had before.

Patriots over Dolphins - Just because they are the Patriots and we know who they are, who are the Dolphins?

Raiders over Broncos - The Raiders were undefeated in the AFC West last year for a reason. The team is fast and high powered, the other teams in the division aren't really built to keep up.  The Bronco's defense is old and the Raiders seems to be able to run the ball with anyone they put in the backfield as well as air it out pretty well.

Thats all for today folks.  Tomorrow I'll post my Fantasy Football lineups.