Ok so lets break down my picks for this year like the ESPN Experts did, well minus the Coach of the Year, MVP, and ROY predictions.
NFL Season Predictions
My Fan Picks
|
My Actual Predictions
| |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SUPER BOWL CHAMPION |  |  | ||
| AFC East | Patriots | Patriots | ||
| AFC North | Bengals | Bengals | ||
| AFC South | Texans | Texans | ||
| AFC West | Broncos | Broncos | ||
| AFC wild cards | Bills, Chiefs | Bills, Ravens | ||
| NFC East | Redskins | Redskins | ||
| NFC North | Packers | Packers | ||
| NFC South | Saints | Falcons | ||
| NFC West | 49ers | Seahawks | ||
| NFC wild cards | Seahawks, Falcons | 49ers, Saints | ||
| AFC champion | Texans | Broncos | ||
| NFC champion | 49ers | Saints |
Story book ending for Peyton Manning, he ascends into football heaven (retirement) with his 2nd Super Bowl ring then Ray Lewis jumps out of the stands and hugs him, which ends up looking more like a tackle because Peyton wasn't expecting it.
Ok time to do the Redskins, Ravens, and 49ers predictions. I'll start with the local teams then finish with my favorite team.
The Redskins had a great finish to their season last year, their Rookie QB and Rookie RB combo was practically unstoppable, until the injury. RG3's injury does worry me somewhat, but I think as long as he takes it easy and stays away from Clay Matthews and Ndamukong Suh in weeks 2 & 3, he'll be ok and return from the BYE at full speed.
- Eagles - LOSS - I think the Redskins will start off somewhat refrained and the Eagles will be full steam ahead.
- at Packers - LOSS - Home Advantage
- Lions - WIN - Shoot Out game.
- at Raiders - WIN - Not sold on the Raiders
- BYE
- at Cowboys - WIN - I hear that the Redskins own Cowboys Stadium
- Bears - WIN - Depends on which Bears show up, but this is winnable.
- at Broncos - LOSS - The Bronco's should have all of the parts of their defense at this point
- Chargers - WIN - I don't believe in the Chargers
- at Vikings - WIN - Refrain (you can't stop) AP, and this is a win in the bag
- at Eagles - WIN - The offense will be at full speed and keep up with the Eagles for a very enjoyable game to watch
- 49ers - LOSS - I'll be here in my 49ers gear, the 49ers are winning this one. (Fan Pick)
- Giants - WIN - Home Advantage
- Chiefs - WIN - Andy Reid will make this interesting, but the Redskins appear to have a better team than the Chiefs, plus they are at home.
- at Falcons - WIN - They almost won it last year, I think they can win it this year with a healthy RG3.
- Cowboys - LOSS - These last two games could flip flop, they are more so to make the NFC race for 2nd place more interesting as the Cowboys, Giants, and Eagles chase the Wild Card slot.
- at Giants - WIN
The Super Bowl Champion Ravens, I think this will be a tough transition year for them. That got younger, which ultimately will mean they will be faster and possibly healthier, but I think it will take some time to get all components of the team to gel properly. I know that the preseason means nothing, but at times they looked like confused misfits. All that tells me is that position ranks weren't really determined and the 1st team hasn't had a chance to get used to playing as a unit. It will take time, luckily the AFC North and the AFC East have a few teams that should help build confidence.
- at Broncos - LOSS - Offense vs Offense, I gotta pick Peyton and his deep WR core. This should be a great game, I can't see it being a blow out for either team.
- Browns - WIN - I expect the Browns to do something this year, just not against the Ravens
- Texans - LOSS - Texans Defense wins this one
- at Bills - LOSS - A sleeper loss. Bills have a decent defense, a better QB, a great RB, and good WRs, I think the Bills can sneak away with this one.
- at Dolphins - WIN - All of Baltimore will be in Miami on Instagram for this game, the stadium will likely be 75% purple and the Ravens get a big confidence booster.
- Packers - LOSS - I'm going with Aaron Rodgers on this one. If the Ravens pass rush is effective, they can make this swing the other way. Defense will need to be excellent to win this one.
- at Steelers - WIN - Nice win going into the bye week
- BYE
- at Browns - WIN - Feeling fresh from the bye another win to OWN the Browns.
- Bengals - WIN - Home Win against the Bengals to feed Ravens divisional confidence
- at Bears - LOSS - This could go either way, Home Advantage
- Jets - WIN - Do you really want me to explain this?
- Steelers - WIN - Steelers OWNership with a home win.
- Vikings - WIN - Home Advantage, plus I trust Flacco more than Ponder.
- at Lions - LOSS - The Lions high powered offense will out power the Ravens in this road game.
- Patriots - LOSS - I just made a bunch of people angry with this one, sorry. I think the Patriots will have a surprisingly good year, this game will put the icing on the season for them.
- at Bengals - LOSS - This will likely be a must win for a Wild Card spot, if the Bengals are still playing starters in hope to get a bye then they will get this home win.
The NFC Champion 49ers, fell short from a Super Bowl win. Some say it was the refs fault, but I'll just say that the team with more big game experience came out and played harder from the very beginning. Its hard to expect to win if you are trailing by so much with half of the game gone. Plus you can never count on refs calls to win games, teams have to play hard all 4 quarters to win games. I think it was a good experience for a young team, young QB, and a fairly new Coach. With the emergence of the Seahawks, and a target on their mobile QB, this season will likely be tougher than last year. The past two years I would say that we were somewhat under the radar, even after going to the NFC Championship most "experts" predicted a huge fall off.
- Packers -WIN - I'll give the advantage to our defense. Tough game to start the season.
- at Seahawks - LOSS - Home Advantage plus Guinness World Book Record for loudest crowd might make this game unbearable to watch as a 49ers fan. It would be awesome if we could silence them though.
- Colts - WIN - Back home for a win. Luck likes to throw INTs, and we have a bunch of folks that like to catch them.
- at Rams - LOSS - I don't think we should lose any games to the Rams, but they knew us too well last year, I'll give them this home win.
- Texans - LOSS - Fanship says we'll win, my gut says it will be close. I'll give this to the veteran team.
- Cardinals - WIN - We still have the Cardinals number, Carson or no Carson.
- at Titans - WIN - Another nice win to build confidence.
- at Jaguars (London) - WIN - Should be a very convincing win, might see BJ Daniels or Colt McCoy in this game at some point.
- BYE
- Panthers - WIN - I'll give this to the QB with more weapons and the team with the better offensive line. Not to mention this is a home game coming off of a bye.
- at Saints - LOSS - Saints have a vendetta against the Harbaugh led 49ers, with Sean Payton back I think they may have a chance to get this home win against us....maybe.
- at Redskins - WIN - I already commented on this above. Defense wins and contains.
- Rams - WIN - Bounce back from the week 4 loss with a home win.
- Seahawks - LOSS - This game will likely be the deciding game for who will win the division, and the Seahawks will likely have Percy Harvin at this point. Fanship says we win, but to make things interesting I'll give the Seahawks the sweep. It will make it more fun if we meet in the post season.
- at Buccaneers - WIN - Might see some backups in the game as well.
- Falcons - WIN - Last game at Candlestick Park, going out with a West Coast Win over the Dirty Birds
- at Cardinals - WIN - A strong win going into the post season.
Ryan has set a quick early pace while leading the Falcons to a 2-0 record. He leads the NFL in Total QBR by a wide margin thanks to five passing touchdowns, one rushing touchdown, two sacks and zero turnovers. He has never finished a season with 30-plus scoring passes or a completion percentage higher than 62.5. His quick start and the Falcons' overall strength put Ryan in position to enjoy a career year both in production and team success. 
Smith ranks second only to Ryan in success rate, defined by ESPN's analytics department as those producing gains in expected points. Like Ryan, Smith has zero turnovers through two games. Despite taking seven sacks, Smith ranks second only to Ryan in QBR among quarterbacks with enough attempts to qualify. He's at 81.9 out of 100 after finishing last season ranked 22nd at 45.8 (50 is average, suggesting the 49ers won largely for factors beyond QB production). 
All MVP Watch candidates are not created the same. Those with lesser career credentials must be producing at a high level to earn spots on the list. The few players with Rodgers' credentials get the benefit of the doubt in the absence of their usual production, especially early in the season. Rodgers has yet to get going, but he has also faced two rugged defenses. The trend continues when the Packers visit Seattle in Week 3. Rodgers' production should pick up against New Orleans (Week 4) and Indianapolis (Week 5) before a tough matchup at Houston (Week 6). 
Rivers makes his 2012 debut on the list. He ranks second to Christian Ponder in completion percentage (73.8) and has led the Chargers to their first 2-0 start since the 2006 team won its final 10 games to finish 14-2. A home game against Ryan's Falcons provides Rivers with a stage to prove he belongs on this list, and possibly higher than fourth. Trips to Kansas City and New Orleans await from there, part of a road schedule that appears manageable for Rivers and San Diego. 
A stunning 510-yard passing performance returns Manning to the list after a week away. Check out this note from ESPN Stats & Information: "Since the start of 2011, Manning is 18-of-28 (64.3 percent) with eight touchdowns and no interceptions in the fourth quarter on throws more than 20 yards downfield. In the first three quarters, Manning is 25-of-70 (35.7 percent) with four touchdowns and four interceptions on such throws." What we're saying, pretty much, is that Manning is clutch. 
Brady had a tough time solving Arizona's defense and now he must adjust to life without injured tight end Aaron Hernandez. He ranks only 23rd in Total QBR to this point. A trip to Baltimore in Week 3 wouldn't seem to help. Brady has seven picks in his past three games against the Ravens, counting the playoffs. He took four sacks against the Cardinals. That was his total through Week 4 last season. New England has three of its next four on the road. 
This spot feels a little high for Newton based on his production to this point and the Panthers' 1-1 record. Let's check back in a week to see how well he fared in his first career matchup against the Giants. The game is at Carolina, which should help. Newton was a 60 percent passer last season. He's closer to 70 percent through two games. 
Matthews becomes the first defensive player to appear on the MVP Watch list this season. No defensive player has won The Associated Press version of the award since Lawrence Taylor a quarter century ago. The trend isn't going to change, most likely, in this era of increased pass production. But with 3.5 sacks against the Bears and six through two games, he has stood out. From the Elias Sports Bureau: "Since sacks became an official stat in 1982, Matthews is just the sixth player to have at least six sacks in his team's first two games and the only player to do it twice." 
It's looking like Griffin will have to carry more of the Redskins' weight after the team suffered devastating injuries on defense during its 31-28 defeat at St. Louis. He appears capable of handling the added pressure. The Redskins have put up 68 points through two games, both on the road. They play three of their next four at home. From Elias: Griffin joins Newton and Jake Delhomme as the only quarterbacks since 1970 with three passing touchdowns and two rushing touchdowns over his first two career games. 
The running game hasn't gotten much going for Pittsburgh to this point. Only two teams are averaging fewer yards per carry than the Steelers are averaging. From ESPN Stats & Information: Roethlisberger's third-down production this season leaves him ranked first or second in passing yards, passing first downs, passing touchdowns, completion percentage and QBR. Roethlisberger has completed 19 of 25 third-down passes for 251 yards and three scores with no picks. 
